Can Process Guarantee Outcomes? - The Cause-Effect Dilemma

Process is just one of the links in the complex web of cause-and-effect. Effects are a result of interactions among multiple causes and no single cause may have full-control on it. But Process can improve the probability of getting the expected results.

How Correlated are Cause (Process) & Effect (Outcome)?

a.       “Very High Correlation” - A Statistical Perspective: Statistics typically uses a Normal Distribution to represent the outcome of a process along with its probability. It says, 

• In a well-managed and statistically managed process, 99.7% of times the outcomes lie within certain defined performance levels (6-sigma).
• However the same curve extends from minus infinity to plus infinity, thus not ruling out the possibility of any outcome under the sun

This way, statistics limits the guarantee it can provide on "Outcomes".

b.      “Quite High Correlation” - Management Philosophies: Management philosophies like Continuous improvement, PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) believe that good planning, prevention etc. improves the probability of success. However all of these including well-known Quality models acknowledge and allows for the possibility of Process not delivering the expected results. 

·     ISO talks about management review of effectiveness of processes and identifying opportunities for improvement.

·    CMMI has GP3.2 which is about collecting learnings from implementation of processes and identifying process improvement suggestions. Causal Analysis and Resolution (CAR) Process Area of CMMI (Dev 1.3) acknowledges the possibility of process not resulting in expected benefits (CAR SP2.2).

Have you noticed that all Contracts come with a 'force majeure’ clause, which as per Black’s Law Dictionary, is ‘an event or effect that can be neither anticipated nor controlled. This is how management including Quality Models, limit the guarantee they provide on "Outcomes".

c.       “No Correlation” - An Extreme View: In Indian philosophy, commonly used words for Cause-effect is Karma-phala (“कर्म-फल”). Upadesa Saram of Sri Ramana Maharishi, a 20^th Century saint, categorically rejects the role of “Cause” in “Effect” altogether. It says results are obtained by the command of the Creator and that Karma (Action/ Cause) is inert (kartur ājñyayā prāpyate phalaṃ karma kiṃ paraṃ karma tajjaḍam, कर्तुराज्ञया प्राप्यते फलम्, कर्म किं परं कर्म तज्जडम् ॥).

Quality Management models this through Cause-and-effect diagrams also known as Ishikawa and Fish-bone diagrams. They describe “Results” as coming out of multiple inputs such as Man, Machine, Methods, Management, Materials etc. Each of these has its own variations. We may expect a machine to behave in a very repeatable way, but it has its own ‘wear and tear’, needless to talk about variations in human productivity viz. fatigue, memory, motivation etc.

 

 

A deep understanding of Cause-and-effect dynamics, particularly involving Human mind, shows that the probability of results/ outcomes can be maximized if

a.      Every cause (specifically involving human factor)  is playing at its best

b.     Every cause is acting so intensely that it doesn’t even get to think about the results/ effect

c.      The cause understands and accepts that no single Cause can control the outcome. This is important for sustained action. Tasks being performed with dependence on results face the risk of failure, disappointment, frustration etc.

d.      Cause continues to deliver at that level of performance

The above are the four essential elements of the famous verse from Bhagavatgeetha which says that our right is only to perform the work, not on results. Don’t be motivated by results nor be attached to “not performing duties” (Karmanye vadhikaraste Ma Phaleshu Kadachana । Ma Karmaphalaheturbhurma Te Sangostvakarmani. “कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन। मा कर्मफलहेतुर्भूर्मा ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकर्मणि॥).

That is, while statistical Process Control tries to study the correlation between Cause and Effect and Management Philosophies and Quality Models try to leverage Statistical principles to maximize the probability of outcome, Bhagavadgeetha is non-committal about it and rather advises to just focus on and enjoy one’s own work and perform it with love, sincerity and excitement. 

Lines from Subir Chowdhury’s book “Ice Cream Maker”: Someone once asked Jack Nicklaus, once of the greatest golfers of all time, how often he looked at the leader board to see his score & those of his opponents during a tournament. He replied that he never looked at the score board until the final day of a tournament. Why? Because if you think about your score, you’ll lose your focus on how you achieve a good score – by playing well. 

To conclude, the Bhagavadgeetha prescription is at anytime a good value proposition and a win-win for the Employee and Company, isn't it? Probably Process Architect who is tasked to study the Cause-effect correlations or perform Root Cause Analysis of the process is one of the few who gets to see the larger blue-print.